I remember when I was (much) younger, and when the latest blockbuster movie was due to be released at the cinema (yes I am showing my age) and we would all be filled with anticipation, waiting for the weekend to roll around and for the Jaffa’s to roll down the aisle. As you get older however the things you eagerly anticipate tend to change, although ironically they come with just as much theatrical entertainment.
This weekends blockbuster, will see the New Zealand public heading to the polls on Saturday for our national election. In the midst of all of this, migrants and employers are understandably wondering whether now is the right time to make decisions about visas, recruitment and their future in New Zealand. However is waiting for an election outcome sensible immigration planning?
There is something about an election that makes everyone a little nervous, particularly when your future depends on a set of rules that politicians have a habit of campaigning to change. Even outside of the immigration space, businesses all appear to be taking a collective deep breath, waiting to exhale on Sunday morning.
Over recent weeks, I have been speaking with prospective migrants, from various locations, who are considering moving to New Zealand, but many have decided to wait until after the election before committing. Equally, we have employers who are considering overseas recruitment, but are holding off until they have a clearer picture of what the political and immigration landscape might look like - partly due to immigration and partly due to longer term business confidence.
I understand the thinking and for people in my industry we also speculate as to what a future (different) Government might mean for the work we do. Moving countries is a significant investment of time, money and emotion. Employing someone from overseas is also a substantial commitment, particularly when immigration policy can influence how long that person might remain in New Zealand for.
Nobody wants to make a decision today, only to discover next month that the rules have changed. However, I think there are a few things worth keeping in perspective both for migrants and the employer who might need them.
The Election Doesn't Change Immigration Policy Overnight
When the votes are finally counted we might have some indication as to who could be forming the next Government, although in reality, it could take much longer for coalition deals to be struck, given the rather chaotic state of the election so far. There is no clear winner in the current rankings although the need for several party’s to join forces seems inevitable. What we definitely won't have on Sunday morning, once the popcorn has gone cold, is an entirely new immigration system.
Even where an incoming Government, party or combination of political groups has ambitious plans for immigration, turning those plans into workable policy and rules takes considerable time. The current coalition spent 12 months figuring out what the last crowd had done, before making any changes (all of which were effectively positive). There may be coalition negotiations, competing Government priorities, policy development, operational considerations and eventually the publication of new immigration instructions. These are things that take months and years, not days or weeks.
Some minor changes and tweaks can happen more quickly, particularly where the Government considers them urgent. We have seen that before, and it would be foolish to suggest that existing immigration settings are somehow guaranteed or set in stone. However, wholesale, structural changes to major visa categories are generally more involved than simply announcing a new policy at a press conference.
There is also a fundamental reality that tends to survive elections remarkably well and something I have discussed on numerous occasions and in numerous posts. New Zealand still needs skilled people, investment, international students and employers who can access the talent they need. The question isn’t usually whether we need those groups of people at all, but rather how we bring them in and manage the demand. Immigration policy tends to be more about the machinery and less about what the machine is supposed to do.
Governments might disagree about numbers, skill thresholds, wages, compliance obligations and exactly how immigration should be managed, but the underlying economic and demographic needs don't disappear when the votes are finally counted.
After more than two decades working in immigration, I have watched Governments come and go, along with a fairly impressive collection of immigration policies. The processes and eligibility criteria have certainly changed, sometimes quite dramatically. However, the general profile of the people New Zealand wants to attract has remained surprisingly consistent - driven largely by our inability to produce enough skills locally and the natural drift of locals to other parts of the world.
That in itself should give most migrants and the employers who need to recruit them a degree of comfort, that there is and still will be a way forward.
What About Immigration New Zealand?
There is another interesting aspect to the election period, and one we are experiencing at present. Over recent weeks, we have noticed what appears to be an increasingly detailed approach to verification by Immigration New Zealand. This has been coupled with a slower pace of processing and a greater level of scrutiny overall.
Requests for additional documentation, closer examination of employment arrangements, more questions about supporting evidence, increased third-party verification requests and a greater emphasis on establishing the finer details of an application.
To be clear, INZ has every right, and indeed an obligation, to verify information and ensure applicants meet the relevant immigration instructions. Nobody should be suggesting otherwise. However, there is a difference between reasonable verification and an assessment process that starts to feel unnecessarily complicated.
At times, we are seeing requests that appear to go beyond what might ordinarily have been expected to establish a relatively straightforward point. Governments are understandably sensitive to immigration compliance, and no Minister wants an embarrassing immigration headline in the final weeks of a campaign.
Of course we cannot say that INZ has been instructed to toughen its approach because of the election, and the additional scrutiny we are experiencing could reflect broader operational and compliance priorities. However this tends to happen during most election cycles when the public service pulls up its socks in anticipation of a possible change of Minister.
For applicants and employers, the message is straightforward and consistent. No matter what the current processing environment looks like. Make sure your evidence is comprehensive, consistent and capable of standing up to scrutiny. Don't assume that because something appears obvious, the immigration officer will necessarily see it the same way.
There is still a balance to be struck, however. Verification should protect the integrity of the system without making the process unnecessarily difficult for genuine applicants and employers.
So, Should You Wait?
This is probably the question we are being asked most often in the months leading up to polling day. My view is that it depends on your circumstances, but waiting simply because an election is taking place is not necessarily a particularly good strategy. If you qualify for a visa under the rules that exist today, there may be considerable value in progressing your plans while those rules remain available.
That doesn't mean rushing into an application without considering the risks. Immigration policy can change, transitional arrangements are not always guaranteed, and lodging an application does not automatically protect someone from every future policy change.
Equally, waiting for the election result doesn't necessarily provide certainty. We might know which parties are likely to form a Government by the end of the weekend, but that won't tell us precisely which immigration settings will change, when those changes might happen or how they will affect individual applicants. In some cases, we could be waiting months for those answers.
For employers, the same logic applies. If you have a genuine recruitment requirement and the right candidate, delaying the process purely because of political uncertainty may achieve very little. The position is different, of course, where a proposed visa pathway is already subject to announced changes, or an employer's recruitment plans depend on settings that are particularly vulnerable to reform.
I have written before about how immigration policy has become increasingly complicated, with multiple residence pathways, different qualification and employment requirements, and an impressive number of variations that applicants and employers are expected to navigate. An election naturally creates an opportunity for politicians to promise improvements, simplification or tighter controls.
Some of those promises may eventually become policy, while others will quietly disappear once the practical realities of governing become apparent. What I would like to see, regardless of who forms the next Government, is a little more consistency.
Migrants make life-changing decisions based on the rules we establish. Employers invest considerable time and resources recruiting people who may become essential to their businesses. Neither group benefits from uncertainty, particularly when immigration pathways often take several years to complete.
We need a system that is robust, properly administered and responsive to New Zealand's needs, but also one that gives people a reasonable degree of confidence about their future. That shouldn't be a particularly controversial ambition, whichever side of the political fence you happen to occupy.
My Advice for the Weekend
Prepare the popcorn, watch the election, take an interest in what the various parties are proposing and consider what the outcome might mean for your circumstances. But don't assume that everything changes on Monday.
If you are considering moving to New Zealand, have your eligibility assessed against the rules that actually exist, rather than those that might exist sometime in the future.
If you are an employer considering overseas recruitment, understand your current options and make an informed decision about whether there is any genuine benefit in waiting.
And if you already have an application underway, make sure the supporting evidence is as strong as it can reasonably be. INZ is certainly taking a closer look at the details.
The election matters, but it shouldn't become an unnecessary roadblock to making sensible decisions.
As for me, I'll be watching the results on Saturday evening, as I have done through quite a few election cycles now, whilst attempting to encourage my two children to take an interest. By Monday morning, whoever is negotiating to form the next Government, we will still have people wanting to move to New Zealand, employers looking for skills and an immigration system that needs to accommodate both.
Some things in immigration really don't change that much.
Until next week
