2026 & Beyond…
We are back and busier than ever.
2026 officially started for us on 12 January with the team arriving back from the summer holidays, although admittedly there was a bit of work done over the break as well. If the first few days of our return to the office are anything to go by, 2026 is shaping up to be a very busy year and with the new SMC rules being introduced in August of this year, the opportunities exist for a much bigger pool of migrants to make the move here.
Of course behind all of this is and playing a very direct role for many applicants is the labour market and the outlook for jobs and skill shortages over the next 12 months. Interestingly we are seeing increased commentary from many businesses that skill shortages are starting to bite, despite our unemployment number hovering around the 5% mark. Growth over the next year is predicted to be relatively modest, but any growth is good.
From our perspective and seeing things as they happen to our clients in real-time, there does seem to be more activity in the job market, even if it isn’t going gangbusters just yet. For the well prepared, patient and persistent migrant there are opportunities available - they might just have to turn over a few more rocks than usual to get that job offer.
On a separate but very related note, 2026 is an election year, and typically that means we see less change in the visa space than usual as the Minister and her colleagues will have their focus set on being re-elected. I for one, certainly hope that the current Minister holds on to the immigration portfolio as she has been instrumental in fixing many of the issues left behind by the last Government and resetting some policies to get them moving in the right direction (the Active Investor Visa being the main one).
It will be an interesting year for anyone considering the move and my guess is a very positive one, particularly with those SMC changes inbound. This week, we take a look in to the future to see how this might all pan out, with some salient advice for those who have pegged their new year resolution on a move to the land of the long white cloud.
Changes Ahead
The last few years in our immigration history have been pretty tumultuous, with significant changes being delivered by the former Labour led government and then significant fixes being applied by the current coalition government. Along the way, policies have been refined, tweaked and updated and for those most part those changes have helped to streamline things significantly. The Active Investor Visa being the start of the show, having been revised and relaunched in April 2025, leading to a record number of applicants, primarily from the US and Europe. These applicants represent a significant pool of capital flowing in to the country.
New SMC Rules
The new SMC rules, being delivered in August 2026 will be the biggest visa change for 2026 and opens the door for a much bigger pool of potential candidates.
However not all changes have been positive, with various tweaks being rolled out to temporary visa processing that has created confusion, delays and more than a few tense words from the LIA community. However we have a Minister who is responsive to those frustrations and a system (INZ) that appears to be very willing to try and iron out the wrinkles.
What we have seen as a very positive result of all of these changes is a dramatic increase in the speed of processing for SMC residence applications (particularly those prioritised on the Green List or based on higher salaries) with turnaround times for some cases being measured in weeks, not months. That makes us incredibly competitive in terms of migrants who have a choice as to where they end up.
The big news for this year however is the planned roll out of changes to our Skilled Migrant Category (SMC), which will see two new pathways being introduced for those with technical or trade skills and those without a degree, but plenty of good work experience.
I recently posted a brief summary of these SMC changes online, which you can read here (flip-book on this page), and we also did a fairly lengthy article on the subject as well (read here).
While there hasn’t been a lot of online chatter about this, amongst the various migrant communities available, I think it is something that needs to be highlighted, mainly because it opens the doors to a much bigger pool of skilled candidates than our current system allows for.
It also means that plenty of people already in New Zealand, working their way towards a residence outcome, may be able to achieve that more quickly, with the requirement for NZ work experience dropping from the current maximum of three years down to two.
I have several clients who will benefit from this, given they currently are on a three year pathway, but come August of this year will either be ready to apply, having already accumulated enough experience or be able to reach that end goal in a much quicker timeframe.
The changes also mean that plenty of good quality tradespeople and those with strong technical skills will have a viable pathway to residence, that currently doesn’t exist. This is positive for them, but also a bonus for employers who might have been contemplating what to do next, when their start candidate runs out of time.
It is also pretty clear that the Government is moving as quickly as a Government can to address the outflow of Kiwis to other countries (namely Australia), which is going to eventually result in another wave of skill shortages. As the economy slowly recovers and the job market rebounds, we are going to need to fill those empty seats.
So all in all, 2026 looks like a very good year for the potential migrant, and particularly for those who might have been locked out of the game, based on our current SMC settings.
The Job Market
While the visa scene looks positive with SMC changes opening more doors for more applicants, there is of course the other side of the application coin, which is the availability of jobs that give applicants the ability to apply. That is by far a more complex thing to consider, but so far this year, we have seen reasonably positive signs for our existing clients. We have teachers securing work, food technologists and laboratory managers, along with IT professionals and engineers.
Many of our clients have taken longer than usual to secure work, but that is something we predicted and prepared them for along the way. Economists (crystal ball gazers that they might be) are predicting a slow and modest recovery with growth at around 2.5% for the year. The labour market typically follows behind growth predictions, so the job market may not see a lot more activity until later in the year…but the positive sign is that the activity is there.
Recovery - Slow & Steady
Economic head winds still exist, but there are clear signs of recovery, growing skill shortages across sectors and confidence returning to the market…
Business confidence is nudging higher and that could simply be as a result of everyone taking a decent break over the summer period. Even the better weather can influence how optimistic businesses are and whether they plan to bring more staff on in the months to come.
Job numbers have been lifting slightly, which is always encouraging, but it hasn’t been even across all sectors. Certain industries are seeing relatively low growth where others are already starting to report skill shortages. It will be a mixed bag for some time until more steady growth settles and the labour market catches up. For those in education, healthcare, certain areas of construction and tech, the opportunities remain reasonably consistent. For other sectors there is demand, but applicant will have to be clever and strategic in how they approach the search process (something we can assist with as part of our engagement with a client).
One area where there is potentially significant opportunity is AI and for those in the tech sector, looking to make the move, having a good AI tool kit in your CV will be pretty important. Plenty of businesses are looking to adopt AI in a bit of a mad-rush not to be left out and that will lead to an increase in roles in this space. Of course coupled with that will be an increase in cyber security related roles to protect us from all the AI.
What this means for the prospective migrant is a slow and steady process to secure work, but hopefully not quite as slow and steady as it has been for the last couple of years. However using all the tools and tricks available in the job search will be crucial and being able to stand out from the competition will also be a key factor.
Your Next Steps
If you have come back from the summer (or winter depending on where you are) holidays, with a plan to make New Zealand your new home, then planning ahead is going to be pretty crucial and for any prospective migrant, having a clear strategy, knowing what is required and being able to adapt as things change is all part of the process. For us, and something we explain to clients regularly, the process consists of four main steps:
Assess your eligibility - make sure you know where you stand in terms of the current rules and the future SMC updates.
Plan and Prepare - start the process by ensuring you have all of the documentation and information required for when the job offer lands.
Job Search Strategy - sending out countless applications is not going to work, and you have to have a game-plan ready for how, when and where to apply.
Know The Process - with job in hand, documents in order and everything lined up, your next step is to navigate the visa process and of course having some good advice and a steady, knowledgeable pair of hands to assist you will go a long way.
Our team is ready and willing to assist you in each and every one of these steps, starting with that initial assessment of your eligibility. Considering the changes that have been rolled out and those to come, understanding where you fit and how those changes might impact on you is really important. For most applicants the SMC updates are going to give them a quicker and potentially more straight-forward pathway to residence.
The Turner Hopkins Immigration team are available to help you plan for your 2026 and beyond - 09 486 2169 or email immigration@turnerhopkins.co.nz.
Until next week!
